Winning the Community Shield may provide an early opportunity to claim silverware, but history suggests it is far from a reliable indicator of Premier League success.
Since the Premier League began in the 1992-93 season, only eight of the 34 Charity or Community Shield winners have gone on to win the league in the same campaign.
Five of those successes came during six years between 2005 and 2010.
Manchester City were the most recent team to achieve the feat in 2019, while Manchester United, under Sir Alex Ferguson, previously did so in 2011.
In fact, only one of the past 15 Community Shield winners has subsequently lifted the Premier League trophy.
Interestingly, losing the Community Shield has historically been a better omen. Teams beaten in the fixture have gone on to win the league 10 times since 1992, including Manchester City’s three consecutive Premier League triumphs between 2021 and 2023.
Last season provided another example of how little the Community Shield can tell us about the campaign ahead. Crystal Palace defeated Liverpool in the match before finishing 15th in the Premier League, although they went on to enjoy European success by winning the Conference League.
Liverpool also endured a disappointing domestic campaign, finishing fifth.
How Often Does the Community Shield Winner Finish Above the Loser?
History gives the Community Shield winner only a narrow advantage over the losing side when it comes to the league table.
In 18 of the 34 Premier League-era Community Shields, or 53%, the winner eventually finished above the loser in the league.
On 10 occasions, the two clubs have gone on to finish as the top two teams in the Premier League. However, the Shield winner finished top and the losing side second in only four of those instances.
Meanwhile, in 16 of the 34 seasons (47%), the eventual Premier League champions had not even participated in the Community Shield.
Arsenal were one such example in the 2025-26 season.
Do Premier League Champions Usually Win the Community Shield?
The previous season’s Premier League champions have won the following Community Shield 18 times out of 34, giving them a 53% success rate.
However, that trend has shifted in recent years.
Including Crystal Palace, FA Cup winners have lifted the Community Shield in eight of the past 12 editions, compared with just five victories in the previous 22 matches.
There have also been three occasions in the Premier League era when neither the previous league champions nor FA Cup winners lifted the trophy.
Arsenal achieved this in 1999 and 2023, when they qualified as Premier League runners-up and defeated the reigning Double winners.
Manchester United also accomplished the feat in 2010, defeating the previous season’s Double winners despite finishing second in the Premier League.
