Could Lionel Messi be on course to add another Ballon d’Or to his glittering collection, or will Barcelona sensation Lamine Yamal complete a remarkable breakthrough year?
The race for football’s most prestigious individual award has intensified following Argentina’s dramatic qualification for the 2026 FIFA World Cup final, with the latest prediction markets placing Messi at the top of the contenders for this year’s Ballon d’Or.
According to prediction platform Polymarket, the Argentina captain is now the leading favourite to claim the award, with a 31.7 per cent probability of lifting the Golden Ball at the Ballon d’Or ceremony scheduled for October 26.
Messi’s odds improved significantly after delivering another decisive performance on the biggest stage, providing two assists as Argentina came from behind to defeat England 2-1 in the World Cup semi-final.
The 39-year-old orchestrated Argentina’s stunning late comeback, setting up Enzo Fernández’s equaliser before supplying the cross that Lautaro Martínez headed home in stoppage time to book the reigning world champions a place in Sunday’s final against Spain.
Victory in the World Cup final would further strengthen Messi’s credentials as he seeks to win yet another Ballon d’Or, adding to a career that has already seen him rewrite football’s record books.
However, the race remains extremely close.
Barcelona and Spain winger Lamine Yamal is currently second in the Ballon d’Or rankings with a 30.9 per cent chance, trailing Messi by less than one percentage point.
The teenage sensation has enjoyed a remarkable campaign for both club and country and could significantly boost his chances if Spain defeat Argentina in the World Cup final.
England captain Harry Kane occupies third place with a 13.5 per cent probability, despite the Three Lions’ heartbreaking semi-final exit. Kane enjoyed another prolific season at club level and played a key role in England’s run to the last four, although the defeat to Argentina appears to have weakened his Ballon d’Or prospects.
France forward Ousmane Dembélé is fourth on the list with a 3.1 per cent chance. Despite impressing throughout the season with both club and country, the French international faces an uphill battle to overtake the leading contenders.
Current Ballon d’Or Favourites (Polymarket)
- Lionel Messi (Argentina) – 31.7%
- Lamine Yamal (Spain) – 30.9%
- Harry Kane (England) – 13.5%
- Ousmane Dembélé (France) – 3.1%
With the World Cup final still to be played, the outcome of Sunday’s clash between Argentina and Spain could prove decisive in shaping the Ballon d’Or race.
A victory for Messi and Argentina would likely cement the legendary forward’s position as the overwhelming favourite, while a World Cup triumph for Spain could hand Yamal the momentum needed to claim the first Ballon d’Or of his career.
The winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or will be officially unveiled during the prestigious awards gala on October 26, bringing the curtain down on one of the most closely contested races in recent years.
